Microsoft Corporation Annual Report 2005
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QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

We are exposed to foreign currency, interest rate, fixed-income, equity, and commodity price risks. A portion of these risks is hedged, but fluctuations could impact our results of operations and financial position. We hedge a portion of anticipated revenue and accounts receivable exposure to foreign currency fluctuations, primarily with option contracts. We monitor our foreign currency exposures daily to maximize the overall effectiveness of our foreign currency hedge positions. Principal currencies hedged include the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Canadian dollar. Fixed-income securities are subject primarily to interest rate risk. The portfolio is diversified and structured to minimize credit risk. Securities held in our equity and other investments portfolio are subject to price risk, and are generally not hedged. However, we use options to hedge our price risk on certain equity securities that are held primarily for strategic purposes. Commodity derivatives held for the purpose of portfolio diversification are subject to commodity price risk.

We use a value-at-risk (“VaR”) model to estimate and quantify our market risks. VaR is the expected loss, for a given confidence level, in fair value of our portfolio due to adverse market movements over a defined time horizon. The VaR model is not intended to represent actual losses in fair value, but is used as a risk estimation and management tool. The model used for currencies, equities, and commodities is geometric Brownian motion, which allows incorporation of optionality with regard to these risk exposures. For interest rate risk, exposures such as key rate durations and spread durations are used in calculations that reflect the principle that fixed-income security prices revert to maturity value over time.

VaR is calculated by computing the exposures of each holding’s market value to a range of over 1,000 equity, fixed-income, foreign exchange, and commodity risk factors. The exposures are then used to compute the parameters of a distribution of potential changes in the total market value of all holdings, taking into account the weighted historical volatilities of the different rates and prices and the weighted historical correlations among the different rates and prices. The VaR is then calculated as the total loss that will not be exceeded at the 97.5 percentile confidence level or, alternatively stated, the losses could exceed the VaR in 25 out of 1,000 cases. Several risk factors are not captured in the model, including liquidity risk, operational risk, credit risk, and legal risk.

Certain securities in our equity portfolio are held for strategic purposes. We hedge the value of a portion of these securities through the use of derivative contracts such as put-call collars. In these arrangements, we hedge a security’s equity price risk below the purchased put strike and forgo most or all of the benefits of the security’s appreciation above the sold call strike, in exchange for the premium received for the sold call. We also hold equity securities for general investment return purposes. We have incurred material impairment charges related to these securities in previous periods.

At the beginning of the second fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2006, we changed the methodology we use to calculate VaR. We previously used a Monte Carlo simulation-based methodology to calculate VaR. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2006, we adopted a factor-based parametric methodology. The factor-based parametric methodology can be performed more frequently (resulting in more timely data), divides the aggregated VaR into its component risk factor groups, and is incrementally more accurate than the previously used simulation-based methodology in evaluating diversification effects of commodity risk factors and interactions between equity and currency factors. While we believe the efficiencies gained by changing to the parametric methodology are significant, we do not believe this methodology produces results that are significantly different from the simulation-based methodology.

The VaR amounts disclosed below are used as a risk management tool and reflect an estimate of potential reductions in fair value of our portfolio. Losses in fair value over the specified holding period can exceed the reported VaR by significant amounts and can also accumulate over a longer time horizon than the specified holding period used in the VaR analysis. VaR amounts are not necessarily reflective of potential accounting losses, including determinations of other-than-temporary losses in fair value in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

VaR numbers are shown separately for interest rate, currency rate, equity price, and commodity price risks. These VaR numbers include the underlying portfolio positions and related hedges. We use historical data to estimate VaR. Given the reliance on historical data, VaR is most effective in estimating risk exposures in markets in which there are no fundamental changes or shifts in market conditions. An inherent limitation in VaR is that the distribution of past changes in market risk factors may not produce accurate predictions of future market risk.

The following table sets forth the one-day VaR for substantially all of our positions as of June 30, 2006 and 2005, and for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2006:

(In millions)
          Year ended June 30, 2006
Risk Categories 2006 spacer 2005 spacer Average spacer High spacer Low
spacer
Interest rates $066   $088   $082   $0127   $062
Currency rates 91   52   33   91   11
Equity prices 88   164   116   168   84
Commodity prices 12   14   15   18   12

Total one-day VaR for the combined risk categories was $158 million at June 30, 2006 and $195 million at June 30, 2005. The total VaR is 38% less at June 30, 2006 and 39% less at June, 30 2005 than the sum of the separate risk categories in the above table due to the diversification benefit of the combination of risks.

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