The Company is exposed to foreign currency, interest rate, and equity price risks. A portion of these risks is hedged, but fluctuations could impact the Companys results of operations and financial position. The Company hedges the exposure of accounts receivable and a portion of anticipated revenue to foreign currency fluctuations, primarily with option contracts. The Company monitors its foreign currency exposures daily to maximize the overall effectiveness of its foreign currency hedge positions. Principal currencies hedged include the Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Canadian dollar. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk. The portfolio is diversified and consists primarily of investment grade securities to minimize credit risk. The Company routinely uses options to hedge its exposure to interest rate risk in the event of a catastrophic increase in interest rates. Many securities held in the Companys equity and other investments portfolio are subject to price risk. The Company uses options to hedge its price risk on certain highly volatile equity securities.
The Company uses a value-at-risk (VAR) model to estimate and quantify its market risks. VAR is the expected loss, for a given confidence level, in fair value of the Companys portfolio due to adverse market movements over a defined time horizon. The VAR model is not intended to represent actual losses in fair value, but is used as a risk estimation and management tool. The model used for currencies and equities is geometric Brownian motion, which allow incorporation of optionality of these exposures. For interest rates, the mean reverting geometric Brownian motion is used to reflect the principle that fixed-income securities prices over time revert to maturity value.
Value-at-risk is calculated by, first, simulating 10,000 market price paths over 20 days for equities, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, taking into account historical correlations among the different rates and prices. Each resulting unique set of equities prices, interest rates, and foreign exchange rates is applied to substantially all individual holdings to re-price each holding. The 250th worst performance (out of 10,000) represents the value-at-risk over 20 days at the 97.5th percentile. Several risk factors are not captured in the model, including liquidity risk, operational risk, credit risk, and legal risk.
A substantial amount of the Companys equity portfolio is held for strategic purposes. The Company attempts to hedge the value of these securities through the use of derivative contracts such as collars. The Company has incurred substantial impairment charges related to certain of these securities in fiscal 2002 and fiscal 2001. Such impairment charges have been incurred primarily for strategic equity holdings that the Company has not been able to hedge. The VAR amounts disclosed below are not necessarily reflective of potential accounting losses, as they are used as a risk management tool and reflect an estimate of potential reductions in fair value of the Companys portfolio. Losses in fair value over a 20-day holding period can exceed the reported VAR by significant amounts and can also accumulate over a longer time horizon than the 20-day holding period used in the VAR analysis.
The VAR numbers are shown separately for interest rate, currency, and equity risks. These VAR numbers include the underlying portfolio positions and related hedges. Historical data is used to estimate VAR. Given reliance on historical data, VAR is most effective in estimating risk exposures in markets in which there are no fundamental changes or shifts in market conditions. An inherent limitation in VAR is that the distribution of past changes in market risk factors may not produce accurate predictions of future market risk.
The following table sets forth the VAR calculations for substantially all of the Companys positions:
In millions |
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As of June 30, |
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Year ended June 30, 2002 |
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Risk Categories |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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Average |
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High |
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Low |
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Interest rates |
$ |
363 |
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$ |
472 |
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$ |
435 |
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$ |
535 |
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$ |
333 |
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Currency rates |
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58 |
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|
310 |
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|
162 |
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|
310 |
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|
58 |
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Equity prices |
|
520 |
|
|
602 |
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|
584 |
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|
757 |
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|
488 |
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The total VAR for the combined risk categories is $908 million at June 30, 2002 and $759 million at June 30, 2001. The total VAR is 34% less at June 30, 2002 and 19% less at June, 30 2001 than the sum of the separate risk categories for each of those years in the above table, due to the diversification benefit of the combination of risks. The reasons for the change in risk in portfolios include: larger investment portfolio size, higher foreign exchange exposure due to stronger non-U.S. currencies, and asset allocation shifts.
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